Political analyst and El Financiero collaborator Enrique Quintana perceives that Mexico will once again be “the piñata” in the electoral campaign of the United States.
This Wednesday, August 23rd, the first formal act of the campaign took place: a first debate of the candidates of the Republican Party, with the absence of Donald Trump and in parallel, the dissemination through social networks of an interview by the former Fox News presenter, Tucker Carlson, with the former president.
Trump dismissed attending because he considered that he did not have to be with applicants who were far from his preferences.
And he might be right on that one.
The site realclearpolitics.com tracks election polls in the United States.
The average of the last nine polls published indicates that the preferences of the Republicans for Trump are 55 percent; in second place is Ron DeSantis, with 14 percent, and then comes a long list of names ranging from less than 1 to 7 percent.
If the former president is still legally entitled to run, there would have to be a huge surprise for him to lose the nomination.
Therefore, what he says regarding his projects will be highly relevant.
In addition, in the confrontations with President Biden, there is a closed competition.
The average of the last seven polls gives Biden a lead of only two points, which is really a tie, due to the margins of error.
When asked by Carlson on Wednesday what his priority would be in the campaign, as the wall was in the 2016 campaign, Trump was clear that his central issues would be the border with Mexico and immigration.
The former president knows that, in these aspects, many Americans are unhappy with the results of Biden’s policy, beyond the hypocrisy that many employers in the United States are hiring undocumented workers in the face of a general labor shortage.
However, beyond the fact that once again Mexico and the migrants are going to become the piñata of the Republican campaign, the most worrying thing for the country will come in the medium term.
In accordance with the calendar established by the Mexico-United States-Canada Treaty (TMEC) itself, in the year 2026, five years after it entered into force, a comprehensive review of that agreement will be carried out.
In the scenario that Donald Trump has returned to the White House and eventually holds majorities in Congress, there could be pressure to make substantial changes to the Treaty.
Regardless of whether they prospered or not, the very fact that there was a stage of uncertainty associated with this process could overshadow the positive perspective that has opened up for the Mexican economy due to the process of industrial relocation.
Source: El Financiero