Until 2024 the country will achieve its pre-pandemic recovery, in the United States it will do so in the second quarter of this year.
Mexico’s economy could have the longest and most painful recovery in its history, which will be achieved until 2024 when the value of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) returns to the same level prior to the pandemic.
This was stated by Gabriela Siller, director of economic and financial analysis at Banco Base, who at a press conference indicated that “there is no way that in the second quarter we will finish recovering as in the United States.
He indicated that our main commercial partner has an accelerated recovery, to such a degree that in the second quarter it will reach its pre-pandemic level and from the third quarter it will become expansion.
The latter is explained by the fiscal stimulus policy applied hand in hand with an expansionary monetary policy.
“(The American Union) is expected to grow 6.2% in 2021, which would be the highest growth since 1984, so it will recover everything that fell in 2020.”
Thus, he reiterated that the full recovery of the United States will occur in the second quarter of 2020, but in Mexico, it will be until 2024.
Regarding Mexico, he affirmed that in Mexico the news is not good, where the dragging effect of the United States on Mexico is greater than 80%, but the lack of confidence in the economy is reflected in the reports that we already know of the GDP.
For the second quarter of 2021, it foresees a quarterly rebound of 0.2% and 16.8% per year, which does not compensate for the fall in the same quarter of last year and is only classified as a rebound effect (statistical), he indicated.
The base bank specialists consider in its central scenario a growth of the Mexican economy of 4.6% in 2021.