At the close of the third quarter of 2026, only three Mexican states—Sonora, Baja California Sur, and Sinaloa—recorded a decrease in consumer prices. This trend, driven primarily by a drop in electricity costs, stands in contrast to the rest of the country.

According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), Mexico’s National Consumer Price Index (INPC) grew by 2.12% on an annual cumulative basis as of September 2026. This annual inflation rate represents the lowest level for a similar period since 2020, when economic activity was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The general inflation in Mexico was most heavily influenced by rising prices in several categories. The most significant upward impacts came from eateries (loncherías, fondas, torterías, and taquerías), which saw an inflation rate of 5.64%, followed by owned housing (2.58%) and onions, which saw a staggering 75.35% annual increase. Conversely, electricity, eggs, air transport, and green tomatoes were the primary drivers of price decreases.

Regional Breakdown

Of Mexico’s 32 federal entities, only three showed a decline in consumer prices:

• Sonora: Recorded the most significant decrease, with an annual drop of 0.58%.
• Baja California Sur: Saw a decrease of 0.43%.
• Sinaloa: Registered a decrease of 0.20%.

The common factor in these three states was electricity. This decline stems from the Federal Electricity Commission’s (CFE) seasonal tariff program for hot weather, which expands low-cost energy consumption ranges in high-temperature cities to offset household expenses for air conditioning and fans. Additionally, eggs saw a notable decline due to a surplus in production and overall stability in the sector.

Other items contributing to price drops included pork, air transport, toilet paper, serrano peppers, and beans in Sonora; poultry, car purchases, beans, and personal deodorants in Baja California Sur; and green tomatoes, pork, beef, internet services, and nopales in Sinaloa.

The Case of Jalisco

In contrast, Jalisco reported the highest annual inflation rate in the country at 3.88% as of September 2026. While some categories saw price drops—such as professional services, pork, eggs, and internet packages—they were insufficient to offset the sharp increases in owned housing, eateries, public transportation, onions, and various other food and beverage items.

Economic Risks Ahead

Financial analyst group Banco Base warns that non-core inflation risks remain skewed toward the upside. A rebound in this area could push general inflation back above the 4% annual mark.

Key risks identified include:

• Energy Supplies: Concerns over potential U.S. gas export reductions could increase demand for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), potentially driving up domestic prices.
• Geopolitical Tension: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to threaten international oil and derivative prices.
• Currency Volatility: The Mexican peso depreciated by 6.30% in September, moving from 16.95 to over 18.00 pesos per dollar. This weakening of the currency poses a direct risk to inflation, as it drives up the cost of imported goods.