The recent attack on Venezuela and the arrest of Nicolás Maduro have raised concerns about whether the Donald Trump administration could invade Mexico. The truth is that the Mexican Army is limited in terms of technology and military capabilities.
Mexico’s national security is not an abstract concept, but a concern born from historical episodes that have threatened its integrity as a nation. Throughout history, the country has faced intervention attempts that have shaped its political and social course and left a collective memory of resistance and defense of sovereignty.
In this context, the recent attack on Venezuela and the arrest of Nicolás Maduro generated concern because they were interpreted as a worrying precedent of direct intervention against a sitting head of state.
In the Latin American context, fears arose that these actions would reinforce a unilateral security approach by the United States that could extend to other countries like Mexico under the pretext of combating transnational threats.
“Beyond diplomatic and international mechanisms, the best way to avoid the escalation of external conflicts is to address Mexican domestic politics. Mexico shares a geographical border with the United States that is impossible to change and obliges us to have a close and cooperative relationship with Trump,” says Yair Mendoza, a researcher with the security program at México Evalúa.
According to an article published by the Chamber of Deputies, national security is a necessary condition provided by the State to guarantee the prevalence of territorial security, independence, sovereignty, the rule of law, and political, social, and economic stability.
Articles of the Mexican Constitution, such as 39, 42, and 129 defend sovereignty, territory, and the role of the Armed Forces, especially Article 89, Section VI, which states that the President of the Republic, as Supreme Commander, is responsible for deploying the Army, Navy, and Air Force for the internal security and external defense of the nation.
According to President Sheinbaum’s first Government Report, to safeguard the integrity and security of Mexican territory, from October 1, 2020, to June 30, 2024, the Armed Forces carried out actions aimed at identifying, preventing, and countering risks and threats to National Security, such as:
The Mexican Navy executed 34,025 naval operations to monitor national territory, airspace, and seas, with the permanent deployment of 18,622 naval personnel: 4,572 in maritime operations, 1,226 in air operations, and 12,824 in land operations.
The constant deployment of personnel and operations in different parts of the country demonstrates the central role of the Armed Forces in the national security strategy. However, beyond the operational figures, it is relevant to analyze how these actions are perceived by the public, particularly in terms of trust and effectiveness.
The recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. armed forces in Venezuela has generated concern among Mexican society about whether Mexico could be invaded by the Donald Trump administration. However, President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly stated that U.S. military intervention “is not an option” for Mexico and that the country remains in cooperation with its counterpart.
Nevertheless, Trump has maintained that drug trafficking in Mexico represents a direct threat to U.S. security and has accused the Mexican state of failing to control drug cartels. In this context, he has suggested that if the Mexican government does not act more decisively, he could intervene directly by using military forces to combat criminal groups.
Yair Mendoza, a researcher with the security program at México Evalúa, emphasizes in an interview that, “in Mexico, what happened in Venezuela will serve to focus the authorities’ efforts on providing security, whether for the national territory or to pursue international criminal organizations that affect U.S. domestic politics.”
Meanwhile, security expert David Saucedo suggests that a military intervention in Mexico could trigger a civil war within the country, as happened when the Americans captured drug trafficker Ismael Zambada, “El Mayo.”
“If any member of the country’s political elite were to be arrested, it would most likely be a governor or mayor with criminal ties; the Americans have already given clues about which high-ranking Morena party politicians they have on their radar as those they want to target.”
By Jennifer Flores for Animal Politico
Source: Animal Politico
