Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum has grown her lead to a 13-point advantage in the contest to be the ruling party’s candidate in Mexico’s 2024 presidential election, a poll published on Wednesday, August 15th, in the Mexico City-based newspaper El Universal showed.
With less than a month until the candidate is announced, the survey showed Sheinbaum with 35% support to be the nominee of the leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), followed by former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard at 22%.
The survey of 1,000 adults by polling firm Buendia & Marquez also showed Sheinbaum was slightly more popular with respondents who identified with the opposition.
Both candidates have long been favorites for the MORENA ticket and ranked far ahead of the poll’s next-best-placed candidates, including former Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez, who had 7% support.
MORENA, lifted by the strong personal approval ratings of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is heavily favored to win the June 2024 election. That has prompted many analysts to view the MORENA contest as an almost de facto presidential race.
The poll showed that Ebrard was the best-known candidate, being recognized by 70% of respondents, while Sheinbaum followed closely at 69%.
Both resigned from their positions this year to compete in MORENA’s internal contest, which formally kicked off on June 19. A winner is due to be announced on Sept. 6th, and is expected to be based on voters’ preferences.
The face-to-face voter survey was carried out from Aug. 10 to Aug. 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.53 percentage points, Buendia & Marquez said.
A survey published in June by Buendia & Marquez showed Sheinbaum polling with a 12-point lead with 34% support and Ebrard with 22% on the question of who should be MORENA’s presidential candidate.
If Sheinbaum wins the nomination, Mexico could see women at the head of the presidential election’s two top tickets.
Several polls have shown Senator Xochitl Galvez is well-positioned to win the nomination for an alliance of leading opposition parties.