The state of Puebla is experiencing the dual impact of the complex economic and migratory relationship between Mexico and the United States. Amidst a climate of geopolitical tension, trade protectionism, and market uncertainty, the state’s industrial and domestic sectors are showing significant shifts, according to a new analysis by the Observatory of International Relations (ORI) at IBERO Puebla.
The study, which analyzed 16 visits by President Claudia Sheinbaum to the state between January 2025 and September 2026, highlights three critical areas affecting the region: export trends, economic dependence on remittances, and the return of migrants from the United States.
Economic Indicators and Industrial Impact
According to the Observatory’s data, Puebla’s exports saw a 9.4% decrease during 2025, while remittances reached $3.495 billion USD, accounting for 5.6% of the national income from this source. These indicators reveal how high-level decisions in Washington and bilateral relations with the Mexican government directly influence the state’s industrial performance and the livelihoods of households dependent on funds sent from abroad.
The ORI identified the automotive industry as a strategic sector for understanding Puebla’s vulnerability to shifts in U.S. trade policy, given the state’s deep integration into international production chains.
Migration and Sovereignty
Regarding migration, the document places Puebla in sixth place nationally among states with the highest number of migrant returns from the United States, based on news source analysis. The study also examined the links between federal government decisions and the state’s specific needs, tracking presidential visits and announcements related to infrastructure, health, security, and economic development.
The research was conducted by students Camila Montoya Morales and José Pablo Hurtado Reyes, with academic guidance from Erick Frías Méndez. The team analyzed the president’s speeches, negotiations, and the implementation of government actions to gauge how international policy connects with local social conditions.
Academic Insight into Policy
During the presentation, IBERO Puebla Rector Alejandro Guevara Sanginés emphasized that academic research can improve both foreign and domestic policy by providing evidence-based analysis of real-world conditions. Nadia Castillo Romero, Director of the Department of Social Sciences, noted that the ORI was born as a student initiative within the Mexican Diplomacy History department to bridge the gap between academic training and current reality.
The analysis concludes that Mexico seeks to defend sovereign equality and maintain a policy of “cooperation without subordination” in the face of U.S. pressures. For Puebla, staying informed on this relationship is crucial, as the state’s exports, automotive industry, and remittance-receiving families are particularly susceptible to changes in the trade and migration policies of both nations.