The American Society of Mexico has warned that the USMCA (T-MEC) could shift toward a bilateral agreement between Mexico and the United States, sidelining Canada, as trade talks intensify under President Donald Trump’s administration.
Key Highlights
- Larry Rubin, president of The American Society of Mexico (AmSoc), estimated a 40% probability that the USMCA could evolve into a bilateral deal between Mexico and the US.
- Rubin emphasized that while Mexico is ahead of Canada in negotiations with Washington, the trilateral framework remains the most beneficial for North America.
- Concerns persist over Mexico’s judicial and electoral reforms, which have raised doubts among US investors about legal certainty.
- Security and energy remain central issues in bilateral relations, with Rubin calling for greater private investment in Mexico’s energy sector.
- AmSoc announced the appointment of Enrique Huesca as its new executive director, reinforcing its technical capacity ahead of treaty reviews.
Trade and Treaty Outlook
Rubin noted that the bulk of North American trade occurs between Mexico and the US, making a bilateral arrangement plausible. However, he insisted that preserving the trilateral model is the best path for regional prosperity. He also suggested creating a parallel framework for security and prosperity, separate from the USMCA’s legal structure.
Investment Climate
- Judicial reform in Mexico has unsettled US investors, with Rubin stating it undermines certainty.
- Potential electoral reforms are also raising questions among the business community.
- Despite these concerns, Rubin acknowledged Mexico’s progress in security, citing recent captures of criminal leaders, though extortion and highway theft remain pressing issues.
Energy Sector
Rubin described Mexico’s energy industry as “stagnant” due to limited public investment. He urged greater private sector participation to unlock opportunities, especially given global energy shifts.
Organizational Update
The American Society of Mexico introduced Enrique Huesca as executive director, while Rubin continues as president. This leadership expansion aims to strengthen the organization’s role in shaping bilateral relations during a critical phase of treaty review.
While Mexico and the US are moving closer in trade talks, the future of the USMCA remains uncertain. Business leaders stress that a trilateral framework is ideal, but political and economic pressures could push the agreement toward a bilateral format.
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