The researcher stressed that a public threat is not necessary for there to be real pressure, since the simple context of political and commercial volatility generates additional uncertainty in the bilateral agenda.
Mexico could face greater pressures from the United States on fossil natural gas supply during 2026, particularly in scenarios of high electricity demand caused by winters with frost or summers of extreme heat, warned researcher Aleida Azamar Alonso. This risk would be added to other fronts of bilateral tension, such as the discussion on strategic minerals and export tariffs, in the context of the revision of the USMCA.
During the presentation of the economic analysis Mexico at the gas crossroads, the specialist pointed out that a scenario in which Donald Trump increases economic pressure on Mexico by controlling energy supply, a key input for the functioning of the national electricity
Azamar Alonso explained that the United States recurrently uses natural gas as an instrument of economic pressure, due to Mexico’s structural dependence on imports from that country. “We depend extensively on U.S. gas to sustain our energy supply and the electricity sector, which places us in a vulnerable position in the face of political and commercial decisions made from Washington,” he told Proceso.
He indicated that Washington’s recent strategy has focused on strengthening the use of fossil fuels and the application of tariff or trade measures in sensitive sectors, as has already happened with Mexican exports. However, he acknowledged that so far, there is no direct intention to threaten to shut off gas supplies to Mexico.
“The combination of tariffs, trade pressures, and adverse regulatory decisions already generates sufficient risks without the need for an explicit threat, because that combination in itself already constitutes a form of pressure,” he explained.
Impact on the United States limits a possible supply cut
Despite the risks, the specialist pointed out that there are factors that could contain an extreme measure, such as the closure of the flow of gas. A supply cut would also affect U.S. producers, particularly those located in Texas, the main exporter of gas to Mexico.
“Profit margins are reduced, contracts must be renegotiated, and projects lose profitability,” he warned.
In this context, he stressed that the energy relationship is bidirectional: Mexico needs gas, but the United States also needs the Mexican market, which makes energy supply a point of tension, but also of strategic interdependence.
Source: El Imparcial
