According to the latest Bain & Company global airline industry recovery expectations report, for December 2021 passenger traffic will barely be 45.97 percent, compared to 2019 figures.
The firm’s recovery scenarios estimate that world air demand will reach 40 percent in October 2021, in November at 44.27 percent.
While, the recovery of world air demand would reach 79.77 percent for December 2022 and 91.24 percent for December 2023, against 2019 figures, according to current conditions. However, with an accelerated vaccination, a recovery above 90 percent could occur in October 2022.
Projected global air traffic for 2021 continues to decline as the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 has weakened consumer confidence in travel and significantly slowed recovery prospects for long-haul flights in the United States. next six to nine months.
Since the last forecast made by Bain & Company in August, this year’s projected global airline industry revenue declined by about $ 12 billion, with an estimated total of $ 243 billion, 36 percent of the total. total sector revenue in 2019.
According to Bain’s projections, air passenger traffic in Mexico in July 2022 will be 76 percent of what was recorded in July 2019, that is, 13 points less than was forecast the previous month. While the United States would register 83 and Canada 73 percent.
Like Mexico, other countries whose recovery projections for July 2022 that fell by 13 or more percentage points in the last month are Japan, going from 76 to 55 percent, and Australia from 83 to 66 percent.
Estimates for the North American intraregional market indicate that in September 2021 it registered a recovery of 76.25 percent, that is, five percent less than the August indices. While for October 2021 the recovery is expected to remain at 73.71 percent, 2.5 points less than the previous month.
By December 2021, the North American intraregional market is expected to reach a recovery of 77.39 percent, 6.6 percent less in contrast to last month’s projections, and until January 2023 it would register a recovery greater than 90 percent. against 2019 figures