For the first time over 10 years, the number of Mexicans who leave their country for the United States will be greater than that of those who return to their community of origin, according to academic observatories.
AMLO administration of the coronavirus pandemic, the flow of migrants to the United States has rebounded, but not only from Central American countries but also from Mexico, so that, for the first time in over a decade, the number of Mexicans will be higher. that they go out in search of the American dream than Mexicans return to their communities of origin.
Unemployment, violence, and the idea that with the arrival of Joe Biden the entry of migrants to the United States are the main causes of the increase in this migratory movement.
In an interview with Expansión Politica, the former coordinator of the Migrant Agenda, Eunice Rendón, and the professor and researcher of the Colegio de la Frontera Norte (Colef), José María Ramos, explain that in recent years there was a “zero balance” of Mexican migration; that is, more returned to Mexico than those who left.
According to figures from the Pew Center, from 2009 to 2014, almost 1 million people left the United States for Mexico, while 870,000 nationals entered that country.
However, in recent months, the numbers of Mexicans to the United States have rebounded and one example of this is the deportations carried out by the border patrol.
According to figures from the United States Customs and Border Protection office, 3 out of 10 detained at the border are migrants of Mexican origin and the numbers are increasing.
In 2021 it began with 40,821 apprehensions of Mexicans; however, last June these reached 60,854, of the 188,829 registered in that month
“There was already talk of a zero balance because there were many more migrants returning to Mexico than leaving, but we already see a significant rebound and if this trend continues, 2021 will be the year with the highest Mexican migration to the United States. in the last decade ”, explained Eunice Rendón.
And Mexicans don’t just try it once, but several times. According to Jacob Macisaac, a Border Patrol agent and a spokesman for the San Diego sector, the repeat crossing rate went from 7% in 2019 to 26% in 2021
In Mexico, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has indicated that his government works to make migration optional and not due to lack of opportunities. However, it is not only the lack of development options that makes Mexicans leave their communities of origin, it is also the cartel violence.
“Of the 4,700 asylum applications that were accepted by the US government from Mexicans seeking asylum, 90% were justified by violence and organized crime in their communities of origin,” adds Rendón.
And it is that in the last months the violence has intensified. Not even the pandemic has been able to stop insecurity in Mexico. Since the government of President López Obrador began and until last June, 91,619 people have lost their lives due to intentional homicide or femincide.
“This crossing of Mexicans into the United States will increase as the United States economy is going to reactivate … The irregular workforce is and will be important,” warns José María Ramos from El Colegio de la Frontera Norte.
Not even the third wave will stop migration
Although it was the coronavirus pandemic that decreased the migratory flow of Mexicans and Central Americans to the United States, the third wave that Mexico is going through will not stop them as it happened in 2019.
For the specialists interviewed, poverty and violence were the main reasons why a Salvadoran, a Honduran, or a Guatemalan decided to leave their country, but these reasons today are compounded by the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“One reason for the rebound is lack of confinement, but another is the impacts that the pandemic has had in terms of unemployment, it is a phenomenon that was already expected,” says José María Ramos.
However, despite the increase in COVID-19 infections in the country, migration will not stop.
In Mexico, the migratory effect was reactivated a few months ago, after the lack of refinement. According to figures from the Mexican Commission for Refugee Aid (Comar), Mexico received 51,654 asylum requests. This figure is 25% higher than those received during the 12 months of 2020 when 51,654 were received.
Comar’s own head, Andrés Ramírez, warned that the number of migrants seeking asylum in Mexico increases year by year so that in 2021, they again expect a record to be broken.
“We are going to exceed 100,000, this is an unprecedented, historical trend, which will far exceed the peak of 2019,” he said on July 14.