According to analyst Pedro Hernández Macdonald, growing public discontent with the federal government led by President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo could translate into a major political phenomenon: the protest vote, an electoral response that has marked the country’s democratic history and is now aimed directly at Morena.
According to recent polls and analyses, the ruling party could lose up to 70 percent of the governorships it currently controls, given a landscape of political decline, broken promises, and a security crisis that has eroded voter confidence.
Morena currently governs 23 states, but most of them continue to grapple with serious problems of insecurity, unemployment, criminal violence, and corruption, while the president’s discourse persists, repeating the narrative that “everything is fine.” However, on the streets, the public perception is very different: there is anger, weariness, and disillusionment.
The protest vote arises precisely from this frustration. It is a vote directed not so much in favor of the opposition, but against the current government, as a way of punishing its performance.
In this context, Morena faces a wave of decline similar to that suffered by the PRI and PAN at other times in their history, when the incongruity between promises and results ultimately took its toll at the polls. This disqualifies them as viable political options; that is, whoever presents the best alternative, even if not from a specific party, could benefit from this protest vote against the ruling party.
In states like Campeche, Michoacán, Veracruz, Chiapas, Morelos, and Puebla, the levels of violence, impunity, and poverty have raised alarm bells. Meanwhile, in Sinaloa, Oaxaca, and Sonora, citizens are demanding tangible results and denouncing the imposition of recycled political figures who only represent the interests of the ruling group.
Added to this is the centralism with which the federal government manages resources and strategic decisions, leaving the states in a position of political and budgetary dependence. All of this has generated profound discontent that could be reflected at the polls in the upcoming elections.
The outlook is not encouraging for the ruling party. Morena came to power promising to regenerate the country’s public life, but today it faces the same criticisms that were once leveled at the regime it swore to combat: corruption, authoritarianism, impunity, and a clear disconnect from the people.
The protest vote could become a tidal wave that strips Morena of much of the territorial power it currently holds, unless it resorts to the same tricks the PRIAN used to steal elections—and that’s precisely what they’ll likely do, since they’ve already hijacked the system to achieve this.
As Mexican political history dictates, no party lasts forever when the people decide to put an end to abuses, pretense, and inconsistency. If you don’t believe it, just ask the PRIAN members, who still haven’t been able to win back the people’s votes.
With information from Pedro Hernández Macdonald
