In 2025, remittance flows to Mexico are experiencing a notable decline, while Central American countries like Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador are seeing record-breaking increases. According to BBVA Research, remittances to Mexico fell by 4.6% in May compared to the same month in 2024, totaling $5.36 billion. In contrast, Guatemala received $2.28 billion (+15.2%), Honduras $1.05 billion (+19.1%), and El Salvador $899 million (+17.7%).
Analysts attribute Mexico’s downturn to a mix of economic and sociopolitical factors. Chief among them is growing fear among undocumented Mexican migrants in the U.S., who are increasingly wary of deportation and immigration raids. The U.S. Treasury’s Geographic Targeting Order, issued in March 2025, now requires money service businesses near the border to report transactions between $200 and $10,000, adding layers of scrutiny and deterring remittance activity.
Additionally, economic pressures such as inflation and a slowing U.S. labor market have reduced the average amount sent per transaction. Mexican migrants, facing uncertainty, are opting to save or avoid formal channels altogether. Meanwhile, Central American migrants—many of whom are newer arrivals or part of more tightly knit diaspora networks—continue to send money home at increasing rates.
This divergence marks the end of Mexico’s decade-long remittance growth streak and raises concerns about the economic impact on millions of families who rely on these funds. With remittances comprising nearly 4% of Mexico’s GDP, the trend could have broader implications for regional development and financial stability.
Source: BBVA Research
