López Obrador ends his six-year term with a record public debt equivalent to half of the GDP
At the end of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, the government’s net debt will reach 16.4 trillion pesos, equivalent to 49.7% of Mexico’s GDP. This percentage is the highest of the last six administrations.
Enrique Peña Nieto’s debt was exceeded by 4.9 percentage points of GDP, according to the quarterly report on public finances and the General Pre-Criteria of Economic Policy for 2024.
Each inhabitant would have a nominal debt of 126,277 pesos, 44.6% more than at the end of the Peña Nieto government. This historical figure shows an upward trend, with an average increase of 87.3% between administrations, reflecting that debt has been key to balancing government spending.
Although the 4.9 percentage point increase under López Obrador’s administration is significant, the largest increase in previous administrations was during Felipe Calderón’s term, with an increase of 14.5 points in GDP. Peña Nieto follows with an increase of 12.4 points in GDP, leaving the last three presidents with record debt levels.
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The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) shows that public debt has grown steadily since 1990, when the government’s financial liabilities, at 2024 prices, were 5.34 trillion pesos. The projection for the end of 2024 is 16.37 trillion pesos, which implies an increase of 2.1 times in 34 years, while the Mexican economy only grew 2.1 times in the same period.
As for the composition of the total debt, there is a preference for domestic debt, which in real terms has multiplied by five in 34 years, going from 2.38 to 11.98 billion pesos. The external debt increased three times, going from 72,246 million to 218,755 million dollars.
The 16.4 billion pesos are equivalent to 94.1% of the spending budgets for 2023 and 2024, which were 17.4 billion pesos, the two largest in the history of Mexico. Compared with the budget resources of the priority programs for 2024, estimated at 741,451 million pesos, and with the priority projects for the same year for 222,668 million pesos, the debt is equivalent to 16.9 times these amounts.
Source: Politica Guru
