Area of thunderstorms is now moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche

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We’ve been watching an area of low pressure over the last week down in the Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula. This disorganized area of thunderstorms is now moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche.

The area of interest is expected to move north and northeast towards the Gulf Coast over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center says conditions will be “marginally conducive” for tropical development through the middle of the week. Formation chances are low:30%

The yellow shaded area includes Louisiana – the Big Bend across Florida by Wednesday and Thursday. These areas need to watch this forecast closely.

When the National Hurricane Center uses words like “marginally conducive”, they mean that conditions aren’t exactly the greatest for tropical development. Wind shear and dry air, as well as a cold front, will be disrupting this potential tropical system. Warm water temperatures and some breaks in the wind shear could still organize the low a little bit by Wednesday.

The next name up is Mindy. It’s not a guarantee that this tropical system, designated 91L, takes this name. We’re watching it closely. Stay tuned!

Wind and surge aren’t expected from this tropical low. Rainfall is likely the main impact we’ll see across northwest Florida & southwest Alabama over the middle work week. Tropical systems don’t need to take names to cause problems. We could see 2-4 inches of rain over the next 7 days.

2021 Atlantic Hurricane List: Next name up is Mindy

We’re in peak hurricane season across the Atlantic. The absolute peak is September 10th. Stay prepared!

Source: Tribuna Campeche

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