After the passage of the Dolores storm, another area with cyclonic potential in southern Mexico is already being watched, while a cold front can favor very strong storms this beginning of the week, while the drought is subsiding; All the details, below.
Between Friday and Saturday, the tropical storm Dolores passed, which directly affected states from Guerrero to Jalisco in a direct way, spreading the cloudiness and rains towards Sinaloa, Durango, Zacatecas, Guanajuato and a large part of central Mexico. There were accumulated maximums in 24 hours of 424.9 mm on streets, 381.6 mm in Cerro de Ortega and 314.9 mm in Laguna de Amela, all in Colima. The system dissipated rapidly since last night, but leaving very beneficial rainfall that will surely significantly reduce the drought in area.
Fortunately, this week the meteorological conditions will be favorable again for the rainy storm to reactivate, and not only because of tropical systems, but one of polar origin could arrive. The forecast indicates that tropical waves 4 and 5 will move over the central-south strip of the Mexican Republic, being number 5 favorable for the development of a disturbance (95-E) over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the middle of the week, being able to evolve into a cyclone, while moving close to the coasts of the Mexican South Pacific generating heavy to torrential rains that, depending on the trajectory, could extend the rainfall to the west, center and east of the country.
Cold front in Summer?
Models have been persistent in showing the displacement of a cold front (it may or may not be numbered 59) reaching north-northeast states during the evening of this Monday, June 21, generating very strong storms with hailstorms and gusts of wind. over 60 km / h over Coahuila and scattered sectors of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, mainly during the night to early morning. It is not ruled out that squall lines are generated that move south, reaching sectors of the Huasteca in San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Hidalgo and Veracruz, followed by a decrease in heat.
This situation, although unusual, eventually occurs between June and August when the cold fronts manage to reach the northern border with the United States and has nothing to do with climate change or global warming. During Wednesday, the front would stop affecting us, but its instability will persist, combining with the passage of tropical waves to the south to cause very heavy rains in Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Michoacán, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosí, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Morelos, Mexico City, Guerrero, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Veracruz and Oaxaca with punctual accumulations greater than 50 mm and some hailstorms.
The drought continues to decline
The effects of storm Dolores and a new cyclone at the end of the week will further benefit the Mexican soil and its bodies of water. The entire population is invited to be aware of the weather updates, as this system currently has a 30% probability to develop. Most of the models show a shift parallel to the coast, but others move it towards the Gulf of Mexico; as soon as the forecast is reliable, we will let you know.
And if at some point the threat of a cyclone returns, heed indications from local authorities, since the rains can favor the effects of floods, river overflows, landslides, urban flooding and dangerous water currents. Also, identify temporary shelters and evacuation routes, not forgetting to have important documents on hand.
As of June 15, the north of Coahuila and Tamaulipas, northeast of Nuevo León, all of Morelos and Mexico City, as well as sectors of Veracruz, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Guerrero, Hidalgo and the State of Mexico, the drought has completely disappeared. Unfortunately, due to the lack of rainfall in the northwest and north, the drought continues to advance, the exceptional intensity of this phenomenon covering more territory. Remember to take care of the water and the environment in general.